Jazz @ Knicks 1/6/2021

Final Score: Knicks 112, Jazz 100

And just like that, a true winning streak is born. Let's dive in.

The Austin Rivers Game

If you're reading this, you know what happened. The Knicks played terribly for about two and a half quarters. They were stagnant offensively, reverting largely to what made them so unwatchable last season, and seemed to be catching breaks defensively. What was once an 18 point deficit felt like it could have been 30. It would have been easy for the Knicks to simply mail it in.

But, here's the thing; this years' Knicks are not the same team they were last year. If anything has been made clear through eight games it is that. Tom Thibodeau has this team operating with an energy we simply have not seen in New York in quite some time. And they are combining that energy with, across the board, a substantially improved team mindset, and better shot selection.

This all begins with Julius Randle. Randle is doing everything right at the moment. Tonight he played one of the worst defensive games I have ever seen from him (which is saying something given last year), and I came away from the game more impressed with him than I was at the start. How can that be? Because Randle is not, and has never been, perfect. It is unrealistic to ask him to carry the burden he does offensively and execute perfectly on the other end each time he suits it up. Very few people are capable of that. What he is, and has always been, capable of, is what he is doing now; being an elite playmaker off the catch, taking, largely, good shots, and giving a damn on both ends. In his last two games he is 21-45 from the field, and 0-10 from 3, which means he is shooting 60% on 2's during that stretch. His turnovers are also up. It would be so easy for him to be discouraged by his woeful three point shooting, or turnovers that are not necessarily his fault, and revert to the player he is more comfortable being. But he continues to stay the course. Continues to put the team first. 

And then there is Austin Rivers. Rivers was spectacular in every way tonight. To most people, it will be his offense in the clutch that sticks out. The Knicks, as they are prone to do with Elfrid Payton on the floor, had absolutely nothing down the stretch. With five minutes to play, Royce O'Neal hit a three pointer to bring the Jazz back to even, when Rivers decided to put the team on his back, scoring their next 14 points including a step-back three to put them up 10 with forty-five seconds to play. It was a phenomenal individual performance. But he may have been just as effective defensively. Like Randle, he is leading by example bringing energy every last possession. Other players contributed; Payton played his best game of the season, Mitch Robinson continues to be an absolute swiss army knife on the defensive end, and Kevin Knox & R.J. Barrett flashed glimpses of greatness that should inspire hope. But this will be remembered as the Austin Rivers game. As it should be. 

This Is Why My Friends Don't Like Me

Despite the win, ever exciting and encouraging, I can't help but feel conflicted. I'm not normally a pessimistic person. I do, however, consider myself to be a realistic one. So as Austin Rivers' final three splashed through the net to a small, yet clearly audible (in the empty Madison Square Garden), eruption, I couldn't help but think back to a possession in the second quarter that had stuck with me the entire game.

This possession should have been very simple. With the PG set at the top of the key, Randle makes the easy kick to him leaving him with three options; 

1) Catch & shoot.

2) Catch, pump, and penetrate.

3) Swing to Rivers on the elbow extended.

All of these options capitalize on a scrambling defense that Randle's skip pass should inspire. But Payton doesn't even get the opportunity to make such a decision. Why? Because he nonsensically cuts into the teeth of the zone where Robinson is already stationed. Instead of capitalizing on the advantageous situation, this goes down as a turnover for Randle and two points for the Jazz. You may be asking yourself, "it's 2021, why are the Jazz playing a zone defense anyway?" The answer is simple; the Knicks don't have the shooting to consistently make a defense pay, even with elite ball movement. In particular, it is Payton's player profile and role on the team that highlights the eternal conundrum that will continue to cast a shadow over the Knicks; what exactly is the goal for this team?

I think we can all agree that, despite the 5-3 start which includes multiple impressive wins, the Knicks are not, and will not be a great team this year. They'll be lucky to be a good one. Given what the Knicks have trotted out the past four seasons, the bar is so low that fans will settle for a watchable one. So it's understandable to me for the majority of Knick fans to be less introspective, choosing rather to embrace an excitement that has eluded them for the majority of the 21st century. But excitement inspired by an unfamiliar energy can only take us so far. We should want more. Which is why, eventually, a reckoning for this team is coming. 

There is no disputing that the three most important players on the Knicks, as presently constucted, are Barrett, Randle, & Robinson. The goal should be to enable those three players as much as possible, giving them the best chance to succeed, while figuring out who fits best next to them. Regardless of the immediate results, forcing this trio, who already woefully lack perimeter shooting, to spend such a large percentage of its time on the court together playing next to Elfrid Payton is, at best treading water. At worst it is hindering them from reaching their collective ceiling as a unit.

Elfrid Payton can be a solid player. Despite not being a shooting threat whatsoever, he has the unique ability to penetrate a defense almost whenever he wants to. Surround him & Robinson (or a big like him) with shooting, and he could very well be the point guard for a passable offense. But the Knicks do not have those things. They, instead, have a 20 year-old R.J. Barrett who profiles extremely similarly to Elfrid Payton. The diminishing returns they offer on the court together only serve as a detriment to the other. While this scenario is not close to ideal for Payton either, the Knicks simply have to prioritize Barrett, the player they drafted #3 overall barely eighteen months ago. Every minute Barrett spends on the court next to Payton is a minute the Knicks are not unlocking him as much as they possibly can. On the contrary, they are holding him back. These development minutes can be the most important ones in a young star's career. What good is it doing Barrett to be consistently operating on a court without space? How is this helping his confidence or long-term arc as a player? 

Which raises the question, how much are we willing to sacrifice for a few extra wins in the short-term? It's only been eight games, but extrapolate these eight games to its logical end-point following the current path. The Knicks current top 7 in MPG is: Barrett, Randle, Reggie Bullock, Robinson, Alec Burks, Payton, & Rivers. The minutes have been even more imbalanced recently, with tonight's game taking the cake, highlighted by Payton playing the entire second half. Now surely (hopefully?), the return of injured Knicks like rookie Obi Toppin, former first round pick Frank Ntilikina, and bench spark Alec Burks, will balance the rotations out a little bit, but we're still reaching a point of no return. Consider the range of outcomes for this season, with this group of players. How many of them can we honestly say we will look back and say "yup, that was worth another season featuring, largely, veteran journeymen and castaways, at the expense of our young players?"

Because I've got news for ya, while this Randle very well may be for real, and it appears the Knicks got one of the top value deals of free agency in Rivers, the Knicks future still lives and dies with this group of barely twenty-somethings. If Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock, and Alec Burks are still seeing 30+ minutes a game next season, or, God forbid, the season after that, there is a slim chance this group amounted to much of anything. Which, once again, begs the question, what exactly are the Knicks doing? Are they so desperate for short-term success, regardless of how legitimate it is? We know this team cannot reach the heights we ultimately want. To pretend otherwise is to fight against an inescapable desert of quicksand. And we can fight all we want, but if the Knicks stay on this path, eventually they are going to sink. 

So what am I saying exactly? Tank? Of course not. The Knicks may not be a true 5-3 team, but this start has been both inspiring and encouraging nonetheless. As I previously stated, while there may be some positive variance favoring the Knicks that is due for regression soon, the effort, cohesion, and analytical style with which the Knicks have played these first eight games is no fluke. With that being said, it is pertinent that the team finds a middle ground, because one HAS to exist. Maybe tonight was an outlier, but Elfrid Payton playing the entire second half cannot become a trend. It doesn't matter how good he is playing, Quickly has to get run. His development is simply more valuable than an extra win or two. We know, with almost absolute certainty, that Payton will never develop the shooting to fit next to Barrett, Randle & Robinson. What we don't know is how high the ceiling is for Quickley next to those three. Or, perhaps more importantly, what type of ceiling Quickley could unlock for the three of them. And we won't know until we are willing to find out.

And if it is an outlier, then why is there such an obvious double standard? Why is Payton seeing major minutes regardless how he plays, but Quickley gets pulled after a single missed shot? Why is Reggie Bullock playing nearly 40 minutes in a game he shoots 3-15 from the field and 0-9 from 3, yet Kevin Knox, who has shown major improvement in just about every area of his game, is fighting to see more than 20 minutes in a game? What has Bullock done to deserve that? He's a journeyman for a reason. And while Bullock's shooting (he's shot just 31% from 3 this season but his previous two full seasons before becoming a Knick he shot 40% on ~4 3pa/g) provides the team with positive gravity & spacing, it should not come at the continued expense of seeing what Knox can do in major minutes. 

In conclusion, I think it's vital to make clear that my feelings (and frustration) stem from a confidence that the Knicks, led by Thibodeau, are building something special. To see guys who, barely a year ago, moved around the court so lethargic and without purpose, fly around and fight for their teammates, tells me that Thibodeau is someone players will go to battle for. To see Julius Randle, a clear talent who looked selfish & lost last season, employing an analytical and unselfish approach to his offense, and working his ass off on both ends for his team, shows me that Thibodeau can get the best out of talented players. The final step is humility. The humility to find that middle ground and make sure the team is building towards something, rather than trying to take a small step forward at every turn, without any eye toward the future. Realizing that maybe to take two steps forward, they may have to take one step back. 

What's Next?

The Knicks are back at Madison Square Garden Friday night, taking on the (supposedly), tanking Thunder. It's quite fitting that this is the Knicks' next opponent after I wrote this, because the Thunder are almost entirely antithetical to the Knicks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, and Lugentz Dort are their three most important young players, so what did the Thunder do? They placed them next to George Hill and Al Horford, two players capable of providing value without stepping on their three young guns' toes. Two players whose selflessness and shooting enables their young players as much as possible. The Thunder may not know what they have in Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, and Dort, but they sure as hell are going to find out. Will the Knicks make note? Or will this end up just another lost season?

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