Pacers @ Knicks 2/27/2021

Final Score: Knicks 110, Pacers 107

A wild .500 team appears! The peak of Knicks fanhood since 2013 has arrived, and there is a lot to discuss. Let's dive in.

Julius Randle...Defensive Superstar?

Randle has made most of us look extremely dumb this season. The combination of his consistently terrific output, his tremendous evolution stylistically from 'guy looking to get his, spinning into triples teams' into 'guy repeatedly making the right play', has been nothing short of jaw-dropping. Very few Knick fans masochistic enough to be there night in, night out throughout the 2019-2020 regular season would believe what is happening this season. Perhaps most shocking of all though, has been Randle matching his newfound offensive intensity & intelligence on the other side of the ball. 

Coming in to the season, Tom Thibodeau issued a challenge to Julius Randle; come into camp in the best shape you possibly can. Randle answered the bell, and Thibodeau rewarded him with the responsibility of carrying an enormous burden on an, at best, mediocre team. It would be reasonable, and honestly should be expected, that a player carrying the insane usage & responsibility that Randle does for the Knicks, may take it easy on the defensive side of the ball. When you throw in the fact that Randle has never been known for his defense, the writing should have been on the wall.

But this isn't the same player we watched last year. In fact, this isn't just your average player. 2020-2021 Julius Randle is special. As if spurred on by every single one of his detractors (*hides under blanket*) Randle has spent the season making rotations, close-outs, and battling on the interior in ways he has no business doing. And tonight was the cherry on top of the cake that has been this season. Matching up against Domantas Sabonis, the man many thought was more deserving of an All-Star bid than Randle, Randle took the matchup personally and gave us his best defensive performance of the season. 

Here is Randle's first steal of the night. Sabonis has been making defenses suffer all season dancing at the top of the key with a multitude of guards. Malcolm Brogdon, Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell, it has not mattered. They hand off, they fake it and cut back door, they fake it and Sabonis drives. They have every option and counter to put opposing defenses in the toughest spots possible. Randle starts by feeling out the McConnell drive, knowing his opposition and dropping back, trusting a floater is not coming. What happens next is straight out of Mitchell Robinson's playbook. Randle stands in a place where he can easily contest a McConnell layup and then, seeing Rose recovering to contest, steps in the passing lane to cut off the pass to a diving Sabonis. This isn't groundbreaking by any means, but it's incredibly sound defense.

   

Once again we have nothing other-worldly from Randle, but more signs of the guy Knick fans have become accustomed to this breakout season. Last year Randle may have been less disciplined, less willing to plant his feet and use his strength to counter Sabonis'. But alas, this is 2021. Randle holds his ground, refusing to cede an inch to Sabonis willingly, and when he recognizes Sabonis preparing to turn and attempt his patented lefty hook, he puts his arms straight up, making the shot as difficult as possible without fouling or potentially falling for a pump fake and conceding a layup. Great stuff.

And here Randle reads Turner's eyes and jumps the passing lane, leading to a wide open breakaway dunk. I defy someone to find a clip of Randle correctly reading a skip pass from last season. I'll wait. Remember folks this is all from one half of a game. 

The final Randle steal of the half may have been the most important. Why? Because Randle actually reverts to his prior self for a moment. This Pacer break comes off a Randle miss, and while they do not have an advantage in numbers McConnell's unexpected penetration puts the Pacers in a good spot. Sabonis makes a well-timed cut across the lane and Randle, caught off guard, is flat-footed and slow to react. I am 10000000% positive that had this play happened last season, the second Randle noticed Sabonis sneaking by he would have stood aimlessly and watched him slam it home, already mentally preparing his next spin move into a crowd of defenders. And that is why this version of Randle is already so beloved amongst Knick fans who were ready to write him off as recently as two months ago. It's not that the shots are falling. Nor is it that he always seems to make the right play. No, more than anything, it's that he clearly gives a shit. And as a fanbase so used to being mired in futility, all we can ask for is the players caring as much as we do. Randle has leaped over that bar. He wants it more than anyone on the court just about every night he steps on the floor this season. 

The French Prince of Gotham

Speaking of giving a shit, Frank Ntilikina, the French Prince of Gotham, and the King of giving a shit in the face of futility, played meaningful minutes for the second straight game. I've spent so many hours of my life explaining to anyone who will listen why this guy is a winning basketball player and far more positively impactful than the box score stats suggest, that it's extremely refreshing to watch him do it in a Knick uniform once again. Especially when many, myself included, thought he may have played his last minute as a Knick. So, naturally, I feel the need to, once again, highlight the fact that this guy is leaving his handprints all over the game, especially defensively. 

Ho hum. Ntilikina moves so naturally, almost gliding, it's easy to miss or, perhaps more commonly, misunderstand what is so impressive about this play. For starters, Ntilikina renders the screen from Pacer big man Goga Bitadze moot, twice, by fighting around it, then uses his quickness and upper body strength to thwart Aaron Holiday's effort at penetrating the defense. Now here's where things get real fun. Holiday dumps it off to Jeremy Lamb on the wing whose pump fake sends Alec Burks flying well out of position. The Knicks are now at a disadvantage, and it is of no fault of Ntilikina's. It would be very easy for him to stand flat-footed around the free throw line, and ensure that he is in a good spot in case there is a kick-out to Holiday, who is his man. He knows better though. Ntilikina hedges, cutting off Lamb's path to the basket and trusting that the out of position Burks will understand his action and switch onto Holiday. The best part? Ntilikina still is not satisfied after covering for Burks, as the second Lamb kicks it back out to Holiday, Frank pivots on his left foot, presumably preparing to close out in case Burks didn't react the way he wanted, and then, after realizing Burks did, pivots again and settles onto Lamb under the basket. This is a master of his craft. There is no statistic for this. But Aaron Holiday settled for a contested twenty-foot shot, which rattled out & directly into Ntilikina's waiting arms. 

Another do-all possession by Ntilikina. First, he correctly recognizes that Sabonis has an advantage on Toppin and drops down to help. Both Burks and Immanuel Quickley also drop down into the paint, and

while Quickley is able to recover onto McConnell in the corner, Burks gets inadvertently picked by a diving Bitadze. When Sabonis leaps to kick it out to the perimeter, Ntilikina immediately turns on his heel to retreat to his man he left, only to realize that the ball is going to Lamb and Burks is not going to be able to close out in time. Once again he covers for Burks, contesting Lamb's three-point attempt as well as possible. It is important to note that while Burks would not have gotten to Lamb, he, once again, recognized Ntilikina's read, and naturally switched onto Holiday on the left wing. Had Lamb passed up the contested three to swing the ball to Holiday, Burks would have been in a good position to defend him. Any advantage the Pacers hoped to gain by Sabonis' size advantage on Toppin or Bitadze's clip of Burks are both ceded by this young French God. Most will remember the Ntilikina steal to seal the game, but these two plays tell a more meaningful story about his overall defensive impact on a possession to possession basis. 

Take a look at what can happen when the strong-side wing, positioned strategically to potentially help on penetration, has to respect the shot of the man he is guarding. Does anyone who has watched the Knicks all season think Aaron Holiday stays glued to the wing if Elfrid Payton is standing there? You don't even have to wonder. Look at where JaKarr Sampson (#14) of the Pacers is positioned. His man is Obi Toppin. The Pacers are willing to concede a kick-out to him. Had Toppin been on the strongside, Sampson is probably there to meet Burks at the rim. Instead, Burks crosses over so that Ntilikina is on the strong side, forcing Holiday to choose. This is terrible defense by Bitadze, but Ntilikina's presence gives Burks the opportunity to exploit it.

This last one is a favorite of mine because of how smooth, concise, and accurate Ntilikina delivers pocket passes in the pick & roll. I truly believe he is an underrated creator as far as creating for his teammates. His passing gets overlooked because he has yet to develop much of a game around the basket which puts a lot of pressure on the roller. Despite that, Ntilikina has developed good chemistry with both Randle & Mitch Robinson diving to the basket. He has even shown an aptitude for reading when a wing is hedging off the ball and responds by making a skip pass to that defender's man. Detractors point to Elfrid Payton's superior creating ability when confronted with the hypothesis that maybe, just maybe, the Knicks would be better with Frank Ntilikina taking Payton's minutes. 

But is he really better? Payton passes out of the pick & roll far less, and a frightening amount of his "production" comes, largely, entirely separate from his teammates. It's mostly just him taking a bunch of floaters or layups inside five feet that the defense is more than willing to concede. In fact, the last game he played, Knick announcers Mike Breen & Clyde Frazier couldn't stop gushing over how well Payton was playing, he finished with 20 points on 8-19 shooting. Payton's TS% in his tenure with the Knicks is 47.8%. This isn't merely subpar, this is all-time bad. Throw in the fact that Julius Randle & R.J. Barrett are already options A & B, thus diminishing the need for more guard creation, and elevating the need for guys who can space the floor to create positive gravity for these two stars, and the decision to continue to prioritize Payton, a 26 year-old journeyman on a one year contract, over guys like Ntilikina and Quickley, both under the age of 22, remains baffling. It is mind-boggling to me that there are Knick fans not only on board with this line of thinking, but aggressively anti-Ntilikina or pro-Payton. If you encounter one of these monsters, I advise you treat them like Hank Hill treats someone who asks for their steak well done.

Shattering Ceilings

At the end of the day, the game-ball could only go to one man; R.J. Barrett. Barrett, inexplicably, didn't re-enter the game in the 4th quarter until the 4:38 mark (It should be noted, Reggie Bullock, per usual, re-entered the game with 7:55 remaining in the 4th. This trend needs to end soon.). By that point an 89-80 Knick lead had evaporated and turned into a three point deficit. Barrett started the game 4-13, and had a few defensive lapses---rotating or closing out late---which led to too many open Justin Holiday three-point attempts. When Barrett entered the game in the 4th, Myles Turner immediately hit a jump hook to extend the Pacer lead to 98-93. From that point on, it was Barrett's game. Barrett hit a three-pointer, followed by a two pointer plus a foul, and then a drive and kick to Julius Randle for three. One more Barrett layup later, and 98-93 became 104-98 Knicks. Just a casual 11-0 run in crunch time on the back of one 20 year-old kid. There are so many things I could focus on, the fact that he has become arguably our most reliable perimeter defender in the rotation (unless Frank is back for good), or maybe the fact that he is shooting 40% from 3 over meaningful volume since January 1st. Instead, I'm going to choose to focus on two plays which I think should give Knick fans the most hope for this young man's future.

I know these are not the two most exciting plays, so I'm sure some of you are asking, 'what makes these two plays so special?' The answer is simple; the New York Knicks drafted R.J. Barrett 3rd overall. He is the most important player on the current roster in terms of dictating the ceiling of the franchise over the next ten seasons. The Knicks drafted him to be a star, or if not a star, to be a well above-average player capable of being the second best player on a contending team. 

While Barrett has shown flashes, and has definitely made a leap in terms of statistical output this season, there has been very little that told Knick fans that this kid could be a star. And while you never want to put a ceiling on anyone, especially a 20 year-old barely a season into his young career, you want to see the skillsets that correlate with great players. So games where Barrett scores 25 points knocking down five or six threes, while nice, don't move that particular needle all that much because he wasn't drafted to rely on his three-point shot. No. What we wanted, was to see a guy who could break defenses down and create high efficiency baskets both for himself and his teammates. That's what elite number one options do. 

The most encouraging aspect of these two plays, which occurred on back to back possessions, was Barrett's poise in the face of a defense designed to stop him. First, they forced him to his weak hand off the ball-screen. Barrett did not panic, rather, he took the advantage they ceded and darted around the screen. But Barrett, perhaps due to learning the hard way after being swatted by Myles Turner multiple times throughout the game, knew that while taking the screen meant a step on his man, it did not create an advantage for his team. 5 on 5 merely became on 4 on 4 with Barrett destined to be 1 on 1 at the rim with Turner. So what does he do? Both times he stops his momentum towards the basket, and plants his primary defender on his back, to allow Nerlens Noel to roll to the basket. Now, all of a sudden, 4 on 4 becomes 5 on 4. 

In the first play, Barrett sees Turner swipe weakly at the ball and knows he now has a step on him at the rim. He goes from 0 to 100 and two steps later has a layup. Play two is more fun, because while he tries to plant his defender, this time Pacer guard Justin Holiday, on his back once again, perhaps learning from the error of teammate Edmond Sumner's ways from the previous play, slips off of it, switching onto Noel to thwart a lob attempt, allowing Turner to take Barrett. Barrett veers towards the free throw line, forcing now off-ball defender Sumner to hedge a bit towards him in case he attempts a jumper, which allows Reggie Bullock to cut toward the basket. Reading the play perfectly, Barrett executes an exceptional bounce pass between two Pacer defenders for what should have been another easy Knick basket. 

The best part about all of this? These were not two random 2nd quarter possessions. This was crunch time. The Knicks had Julius Randle & Derrick Rose on the court. Both were having fine games. But they said, "here you go young blood, take us home," and Barrett delivered. This is what we have been waiting to see. The defense, the shooting, these are things that raise his floor and ensure that Barrett should be a part of the franchise for a long time coming. But execution like these two plays, execution that requires a rare combination of skill, intelligence, patience, poise, and a number of other adjectives Clyde has probably used during Knick games this season, opens up scenarios where Barrett isn't just a part of this team, but the face of the franchise.

What's next?

There is no word on Taj Gibson yet, so Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks are once again at a crucial point in their season. Should Gibson miss time before Robinson's inevitable return, Thibodeau has another rotation decision to make. The Knicks executed extremely well on both sides of the ball in the limited minutes Randle played at the center with Kevin Knox playing power forward. Many fans have been clamoring for Knox to get a chance to play power forward, because it seems obvious given his profile that that is his natural position. God forbid the team actually put one of their lottery picks in the best possible position to succeed, right? We shall see. The Knicks fly to Detroit to play the streaking Pistons in a revenge game for both Derrick Rose & Dennis Smith Jr., so who knows what will happen.

Thanks for reading.

FB119