Bucks @ Knicks 12/27/2020

Final Score: Knicks 130, Bucks 110

No that's not a typo. How did this happen? Let's dive in.

Redemption

I'll start with the good. There was a lot of it. 

Elfrid Payton & Julius Randle have not been the most popular athletes to call New York their home. Their first year has been marred with selfishness, inefficiency, and a general lackadaisicalness that is not what Madison Square Garden was built on. But for one night (actually, three in Julius's case), the much-maligned duo put their struggles aside and dominated the leagues most formidable regular season opponent. 

Payton came out of the gate flying, controlling the game in a way he has always been capable of. The Bucks tried to counter his penetration in a familiar way---they sagged off him. But Elfrid was not to be denied, and when Milwaukee gave an inch he took it. His shot was falling, but I'd like to think that if Payton brought the same energy he did in games 1 & 2,  but with a few jump shots finding the bottom of the net, we would be able to see the forest for the trees. No, it was much more than his jump shot falling. 

And if Payton caught Knick fans by surprise, Randle's night was likely a bit more expected. Or it should have been. During the preseason Thibs raved about the shape Randle arrived in. And once the Knicks stepped on the court Randle has, at least offensively, looked as though he's turned over a new leaf. Like Payton, Randle has not just been the benefactor of outlier-level shooting luck. While I'm sure there's some of that there, Randle's improvement has been the drastically new & more team-friendly role he's embraced thus far this year, and the profile of shots that have come along with it. 

More on that later...

The Kids Are Alright

Coming into the season, many Knick fans were concerned with the amount of young players looking to find a niche on the team. We knew R.J Barrett & Mitch Robinson would be staples of the team, and that incoming rookies Obi Toppin & Immanuel Quickley would get their chances, but what about former first round picks Kevin Knox & Frank Ntilikina?

Knox has answered his critics with major improvements on both sides of the ball. Defensively he is like a different player than he was for his first two seasons. Gone is the aimlessness that seemed to plague him, replaced by a much hungrier and in tune defender. He is actively seeking to make an impact, but not running around like a chicken with his head cut off. He closes out with a purpose, stays down on pump fakes, and uses his body & athleticism to stay in front of ball-handlers. To top it off, he's showing an ability to protect the rim which can be incredibly valuable for a wing. Offensively, while his absolute output has not been tremendous, the strides are in the tape if you look closely. In prior seasons, his lack of an established role seemed to negatively affect him both mentally and stylistically. When he was finally allowed to touch the ball he seemingly did not know what to do with it. He looked lost. Not this year though. This year he catches and shoots with confidence. Or takes the hand-off, collapses the defense. He's even shown a multitude of passes in his arsenal, both the pocket-pass to a diving screener, and a whip/skip pass to the corner, displaying both a passing ability and basketball IQ many did not know existed. 

And Ntilikina, a guy I could spend hours talking about, was absolutely brilliant last night. Most will talk about the four threes he hit, including one that inspired Mike Breen's famous "BANG" call, and it's nice to see some results given how hard he has obviously been working on his shooting. But what impressed me most about his game was the stuff he does that seems to always get lost in the shuffle. His defense was, per usual, tremendous. Everything he does on that side of the ball is fantastic. If Thibodeau is the defense-first guy he claims to be, he should love what he sees from Ntilikina on that side of the ball. Offensively though, Frank added more than just a few nice triples. Even without a direct impact, he is the ultimate teammate enabler on that side of the ball. He is such an active mover/screener it has a noticeable effect on the rest of the team. He also seems to have a great feel for the flow of the game in terms of plays to run and who to get the ball to. He may not be a point guard in this league but he still has value to add as a secondary creator, especially with his skill & versatility on the other side of the ball. 

Barrett & Robinson continued to show the flashes that make them the two most heralded young guys on the roster. Robinson has the impact of a guy with eight arms. He can stay with penetrating guards, affect a potential floater of theirs with one arm, while simultaneously blocking the path to a diving big-man with the other. And now, somehow, he has drastically reduced the rate at which he falls for pump fakes. He is staying disciplined and growing up right before our eyes. Barrett struggled again with his jump shot (although he continues to show nice improvement at the FT line), but it is tough to care too much about that as his all-around game keeps progressing. He is passing, rebounding & defending in ways I never thought we would see last year. Especially this immediately. 

Sustainability

If you think the Knicks are going to shoot 60% from 3, Julius Randle is going to be working the mid-range like Kawhi Leonard, or Elfrid Payton suddenly mastered the floater, I've got a bridge to sell you. This is a danger zone for the Knicks, because while last night's performance was exceptional, it's important that they focus on the areas they excelled at that they can continue to excel at. We do not want this season to turn into another Julius Randle 'superstar' season. We do not want Alec Burks to become Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford. What we want, or what we should want, is the continuing development of a system on both sides of the ball.

For three quarters Elfrid Payton & Julius Randle played some of their best basketball of the season, but they did so within the parameters of a team offense. Payton played off-the-ball, and teams left him alone as they typically do, but last night he didn't just stand there aimlessly. He drifted from corner to elbow-extended, and when the ball was kicked to him he shot or drove with confidence. That was is what the Knicks need. Payton does not have to be a 40% 3-pt shooter, he just has to make the defense think about what he is going to do with the space they are so determined to give him. Make defenses pay enough times, and all of a sudden the paint will become a little bit freer. For two nights the Knicks basically played 4v5 anytime Payton was on the floor and not dominating the ball. That was not the case last night. 

For what it is worth, one game does not change my strong objection to Payton in the Knicks' starting lineup. His strengths are just far too redundant with Barrett & Randle's. Synergy matters. Quickley (or Ntilikina) fit far better with Barrett/Randle/Robinson. They are more willing perimeter shooters, and require the ball in their hands less. I think the Knicks unleash both their starting & bench lineups by moving Payton to the bench. With that being said, if Payton can play with the energy & decision-making he did last night, there's no reason he should not be in the rotation.

As for Randle, he is never going to be the perfect player. He's not Tim Duncan. But the strides he has taken to integrate himself to a part of something bigger are clear thus far. He is isolating less, and operating off the catch far more. Shockingly, his efficiency is up. This is the player that was such a big contributor for New Orleans two seasons ago. This is the player we signed. A guy who, on the offensive end, can be a far more talented version of what Draymond Green brought to the Warriors for the past five seasons. If Randle screens actively, he'll catch the ball in many advantageous situations where he can attack the basket or find a shooter. Towards the end of the night Randle drifted away from that and the offense stagnated. He took multiple off-balance fade-away 20 footers that had no chance of going in. Whatever. It was his night. Let's just hope he, with some help from his coach, can continue to focus on what is working.

Other positives to focus and hopefully build upon:

-The teams' defensive intensity & decision-making (particularly Ntilikina/Knox/Robinson)

-Knox's quick evolution as a secondary creator on offense.

-Robinson staying out of foul trouble

-Payton/Ntilikina being willing shooters, taking advantage of the space they're given.

What's Next?

The Knicks play in Cleveland Tuesday night, and while Toppin will definitely be out, Quickley may return. It will be interesting to see what Thibs 10-man rotation is when the roster is fully healthy. Ntilikina showing his merit as a Marcus Smart-like wing (remember his wingspan is 7'1) certainly could throw a wrench into things. Especially with Bullock's struggles. If it were me, I'd start Quickley/Barrett/Knox/Randle/Robinson and bring Burks/Rivers/Ntilikina/Toppin/Noel off the bench. If you give Robinson ~30-35 MPG, that leaves you a quarter or so to go small with Randle/Toppin as the "5", or have Noel play when the opponent requires a more true center.  

Since lineup changes likely won't happen in the near future, for now I can only hope the Knicks continue to show the progress they have through three games. Both on an individual and a team level. Robinson will have his hands full with Andre Drummond. And Payton/Barrett/Ntilikina will have their hands full with young Cavs guards Collin Sexton & Darius Garlund. If Payton doesn't come out the way he did against Milwaukee I expect Thibodeau to bring in Ntilikina earlier for defense.

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