Nets @ Knicks 1/13/2021

Final Score: Knicks 109, Nets 116

I only have one takeaway from this game, and it's a long one, so strap in.

How to Torpedo Your Team's Chances of Winning

46-43.

That's what the score was after a Mitchell Robinson put back with 4:37 left in the 1st half. From that point on the Nets finished the half on a 15-2 run. The Knicks starting lineup, for the most part, held their own for the majority of this game. This one stretch of the game, not only took the Knicks out of this game, but highlighted the root of a lot of the Knicks problems through 12 games. 

Here we have a simple p&r. Part of this is on both Robinson not setting the cleanest screen and Austin Rivers' loose handle breaking the play down for a moment. But Rivers still finds his way past Nets' defender Chris Chiozza forcing DeAndre Jordan to leave Robinson under the basket to thwart his attack to the rim. This should be an advantageous situation for the Knicks. Instead, Joe Harris is able to leave his man wide open in the corner opposite to help negate Robinson's presence under the rim.

Here we have, arguably, the most egregious example, and it results in a Knicks basket! The Nets send a double team to Julius Randle in the mid-post, where he had been feasting for the first twenty or so minutes of the game. This is another spot that should setup great for the Knicks. Kevin Durant slides to the extended elbow to defend a spotting-up Rivers, while Jordan sticks to Robinson under the basket. This leaves Chiozza, alone, to defend both R.J. Barrett & Elfrid Payton. Barrett even sets a heady backscreen to leave Payton with an entire half of the court to himself. The problem, is the Nets are more than willing to concede this, and Randle knows it. The result is the Knicks playing 4v5 and getting very fortunate to avoid an offensive foul on Barrett, who makes an excellent pass to Robinson for the dunk.

This possession is an extremely impressive two part failure. Payton starts by dumping the ball into Randle in the mid-post. Chiozza, Payton's, defender, doesn't even try to hide his intentions, and immediately doubles off Payton forcing Randle to hesitate. Payton, for some reason, stands under the rim right next to Robinson allowing Jordan to guard both players simultaneously.

The Randle drive results in a kick-out to Rivers, but any advantage potentially gained by the Nets double teaming Randle has been negated by Payton's uselessness. Look at how Durant doesn't even bother stepping up as Rivers dribbles around the Randle screen. He knows Chiozza can simply help off Payton to contest a potential shot. Instead, Payton "dances" at the end of the shot clock, and puts up a baseline jumper. I don't need to show the result, anyone who has spent two minutes watching this team knows the ball doesn't go in.

And here we arrive at the second part of the spacing problem. Another Rivers penetration results in the defense breaking down, with Jordan, once again, leaving Robinson to meet Rivers at the basket, and Harris leaving the corner opposite to put a body on Robinson. Rivers makes the logical pass to a wide open Payton in the corner. I don't care how bad your overall shooting statistics are; if you are a guard in the freaking NBA you have to at least try to shoot that. How bad a shot can it possibly be? I'd guess the average NBA guard is, conservatively, 50% on uncontested corner 3's. Let's say Payton is meaningfully worse and only 35%. Are the Knicks really going to get a 1.05 PPP (point per possession) shot attempt in the final 7 seconds of the shot clock after passing that up? But Payton, because of his horrid overall track record as a shooter, is often times unwilling to even put a shot up. Instead, Rivers is forced to, once again, try to create offense on his own, and he settles for a contested step back 3. If there is a first domino that allows opposing defenses to exploit the Knicks, this is it. 

Of course, sometimes he does shoot, and the results aren't much better. Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. So what should the Knicks do? Well, after enough possessions featuring Randle or Barrett as the lead ball-handler are thwarted, you realize that, if you're going to have him out there, maybe you have to let Payton do what he does best. 

Well he's not very good at that either. Alright, fine, I guess we have to go back to Randle and hope for the best.

Once again Chiozza doubles, and Payton cuts to, well I'm not quite sure what he's doing there. The double forces Randle to travel. This is honestly exhausting just to watch.

Look at where Joe Harris is allowed to stand. Look at what Julius Randle is forced to drive into. That is pathetic. It's 2021. Teams should not be allowed to pack the paint this way. And this possession actually highlights another flaw of Payton's; at the start of the possession all four Knicks were on the left side of the floor, watch what Barrett does to balance the floor a bit.

Barrett takes one glance at the unbalanced spacing and cuts to the strong corner. And that's the thing, there are plenty of guys who are subpar shooters in the league, but they make up for it in other ways. Payton, arguably the worst shooting perimeter player in the league, refuses to even attempt to add anything intangible off the ball. He doesn't screen, he doesn't cut, he just stands there uselessly*. These were eight of the Knicks last nine possessions in the first half, and he killed them on every one. This is how a three point deficit becomes fifteen in under five minutes. And this is also how a rebuilding franchise chooses to hinder any and all development they are trying to inspire. 

*Say what you want about Frank Ntilikina but two things are inarguable; 1) He is far more active and intelligent, actively seeking ways to create space or opportunities for teammates through cuts and screens, and 2) while he is by no means a terrific perimeter shooter (although he's clearly shown major improvement), he is willing to try to make a defense pay and capitalize on advantageous situations the Knicks create. If he is open, he will fire.

I understand the counter-arguments, and I understand this is painting Payton in a particularly negative, and potential somewhat unfair light. I know that his ability to break down the defense has some value, especially on a team like the Knicks that can struggle to create offense. I also understand that Payton isn't the only liability from a spacing standpoint. Barrett, who is just 3 for his last 22 from beyond the arc, is arguably just as harmful to team spacing. And Randle, who has performed admirably thus far this season, is no sharpshooter himself. Combine those two with Robinson, a rim-diving big man, and you already have spacing issues. This situation is probably just as unfair on Payton as it is on the other guys.

But what are you going to do? The Knicks drafted Barrett 3rd overall barely eighteen months ago. He's going to play. Randle is the teams highest paid player and putting up all-star numbers, he's going to play. And Robinson, just 22 years old, is the teams best defender by far and their only source of rim protection. Those three are going to be staples of a huge percentage of Knick lineups. Payton is, fair or not, the odd man out. The Knicks are doing everyone involved a major disservice by continuing to try and force a square peg into a round hole and force Payton into these lineups. 

So, please, whoever the powers that be, I beg you, stop. I'm not asking for a playoff birth, I'm not even asking you to be good. I'm just asking you to make good decisions, and put out a watchable product that gives fans confidence that the team is headed in the right direction. Because, whatever this is, is not either of those things.

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